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(p. 380) 27. The Future of the EU 

(p. 380) 27. The Future of the EU
(p. 380) 27. The Future of the EU

Brigid Laffan

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date: 19 April 2021

This chapter discusses the future of the European Union by presenting four scenarios: Disintegration, Piecemeal Adjustment, Functional Federalism, and a United States of Europe. Although systemic disintegration is unlikely, the chapter argues that partial disintegration of the EU may occur because of the possible exit of the UK and the victories of secessionist movements in some member states. It also shows that the political battle concerning the future of the Union is between Piecemeal Adjustment and Functional Federalism. Moreover, it suggests that a United States of Europe is highly unlikely since the member states are not in favour of further federation while the degree of contestation about the future of the EU precludes a transformation of the system. The chapter concludes by considering the potential impact of Germany's leadership role on any future scenario for the EU.

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