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This chapter looks into the Poliheuristic Theory of Decision-Making. This theory seeks to explain both the processes and the outcomes of foreign policy. The chapter then explains the theory's two-stage analytical framework and its subsequent shortcomings and empirical analysis. Poliheuristic Theory integrates insights from both cognitive and rationalist perspectives on foreign policy decision-making. A number of articles that have used Poliheuristic Theory in non-Western settings have deliberately used non-Western contexts to explore and expand the theory's context-sensitivity, applicability, and explanatory scope. The chapter cites that further research is needed concerning the applicability of Poliheuristic Theory to group decision-making, which correlates to the aggregation challenge cognizant to political dynamics in a group setting.

This chapter outlines the key concepts of the Groupthink Model, which places decision-making in small groups at the centre of analysis. As an empirical phenomenon, groupthink occurs when the striving for harmony and agreement within a decision-making group makes critical thinking take precedence over the substantive task the group has to work on. The analytical focus of the Groupthink Model primarily depends on foreign policy decision-making in small groups. The chapter presents empirical applications of the Groupthink Model, which are mostly confined to Western countries and the United States. It mentions how the weaknesses of the Groupthink Model open up several avenues for future research.

This chapter examines the notion of an organizational behaviour approach with respect to foreign policy. Essentially, the organizational behaviour approach explains foreign policy as the output of government organizations operating according to standard patterns of behaviour. The chapter then enumerates the main functions and characteristics of organizational decision-making processes while highlighting the central role of organizational routines. However, the approach showcases that organizational routines sometimes have unintended consequences which may lead to foreign policy failures. The chapter looks into the assumed stability of organizational routines while considering the ability of decision-makers to adapt, modify, and reproduce existing routines in line with their own political interests.

This chapter provides an overview of the bureaucratic politics approach when it operates in line with foreign policy. The chapter considers an approach which looks at governments and their operations within foreign policy as the outcome of political bargaining between different government bureaucracies. The bureaucratic politics approach uses the concept of action channels to identify the bureaucratic actors who participate in government foreign policymaking. The chapter explains how different bureaucratic actors in the same government may advocate different foreign policy positions which can cause conflict in the decision-making process. The chapter finally presents the basic assumptions and key arguments of the bureaucratic politics approach while showing how it can be used in empirical Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) research.

This chapter discusses the study of analogies and metaphors as cognitive heuristics in foreign policy decision-making. It examines how analogical reasoning can help decision-makers reduce the complexity of foreign policy problems. The use of analogies and metaphors involves two subsequent cognitive processes wherein decision-makers activate analogies or metaphors from long-term memory while also mapping their knowledge on the activated analogies or metaphors onto the foreign policy decision. The chapter provides an overview of analogies and metaphors in Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA). It also considers possible future research on analogies and metaphors in foreign policy and foreign policy decision-making.

This chapter explores the key concepts of Prospect Theory, which is a descriptive theory to explain foreign policy decision-making under risk. It acknowledges the theory as currently the most influential behavioural theory of choice in the social sciences. Prospect Theory emphasizes the importance and impact of the decision-making environment on decision-makers. The chapter also details the basic assumptions, application, and criticisms of Prospect Theory. It describes the numerous starting points for future research offered by Prospect Theory, such as elites being fundamentally less averse to taking risks than individuals who do not hold top positions in politics and business.

This chapter considers a number of broad avenues for advancing Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) theories. FPA theories can be advanced by incorporating insights from ‘non-US’ foreign policy research, which in turn could contribute to a further decentring of the field more generally. The chapter details the points of departure for ‘internal dialogue’ among FPA theories before suggesting that the FPA can benefit from non-US foreign policy research. It then highlights that FPA theories have numerous implications and lessons for real-world decision-making. Essentially, FPA offers a multitude of starting points for future research, such as bridge-building and cross-fertilization within the field and other areas of scientific inquiry.

This chapter analyses how citizens in Europe vote across elections. Elections are an integral part of democracy as they allow citizens to shape collective decision-making. The chapter addresses the issue of trying to explain why people vote in the first place. It also looks at the inequality of turnout between citizens: why do some people just not bother to vote at all? The chapter also looks at different explanations of vote choice. This is achieved by introducing the proximity model of voting which assumes that voters and parties can be aligned on one ideological dimension. It presupposes that voters will vote for the party that most closely resembles their own ideological position. Complications can be added to this model, however, that consider the role of retrospective performance evaluations and affective attachments to social groups and political parties. The institutional context also needs to be considered, though, as this can influence voters’s decision-making.