This chapter contributes to the in-depth study of the evolution of US policy towards the Middle East. It reviews the origins and development of US policy over the past century, stressing the crucial and interdependent relationship between different domestic constituencies in the US and the conduct of US foreign policy. It also gives an implicit critique of realist approaches and analyses the neo-conservative revolution under George W. Bush. The chapter offers assessments of the records of the most recent administrations, such as President Barack Obama’s attempt to reset relations with the region included an agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program. It talks about how President Donald Trump upended US Middle East policy in several significant ways, while his successor President Joe Biden, sought to undo parts of his predecessor’s legacy.
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This chapter focuses on stability and instability in less developed countries in the post-Cold War period. One of the signs, alongside the end of the Cold War, that old enmities were breaking down and that a more liberal-democratic world order might be emerging, was the end of apartheid in South Africa. This development followed a long period in which White supremacy had been in decline in southern Africa, leaving the home of apartheid exposed to strong external pressures. After discussing the end of apartheid in Southern Africa, the chapter considers developments in Central Africa, in particular Rwanda and Zaire, as well as the Middle East and East Asia. It concludes with an assessment of the rise of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1967–89, the emergence of the ‘tiger’ economies in the 1990s, and the post-1997 economic crisis.
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Eugene L. Rogan
This chapter traces the origins and the entry of Middle East states into the international system after the First World War. The modern states of the Arab Middle East emerged from the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the post-First World War settlement. The fall of the Ottoman Empire left the Turks and Arabs ready for statehood, although unprepared for dealing with the international system. Indeed, the Palestine crisis brought to light Arab weaknesses in the international arena and in regional affairs that were a legacy of the way in which the colonial powers shaped the emergence of the modern Middle East. Ultimately, the emergence of the state system in the Middle East is a history both of the creation of stable states and of destabilizing conflicts.
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Roland Dannreuther
This chapter addresses the important relationships that are currently evolving between Russia, China, and the Middle East. Russia and China have emerged as increasingly powerful actors in the Middle East and their presence and influence in the region has grown significantly. While both states have had longstanding historical links with the region, the twenty-first-century panorama is a quite distinctive one, with new economic and geopolitical factors driving a return to Middle East and North Africa (MENA). In addition, significant Muslim populations in both countries add another dynamic to contemporary Russian and Chinese relations with MENA. The chapter then identifies the challenges this presents for the United States and the West, and how the states and peoples of the Middle East are responding to the resurgence of Russian and Chinese power in the region.
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This chapter tackles the omnipresent question of oil and its relation to the Middle East’s political economy and international relations. It demonstrates the compelling links between oil and the consolidation and evolution of the modern state system. It also points out how outside powers have invariably used oil in their dealings with the Middle East yet this has figured less prominently in the foreign policies of Arab states, whose concerns remain of a more parochial kind. The chapter analyzes a rentier model that shows how oil has conditioned economic and political outcomes in oil-rich and oil-poor states, slowing down the prospects for reform. It emphasizes how oil has given states huge power and resistance to political change.
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This chapter covers the post-Cold-War period, the late twentieth, and early twenty-first century with a focus on the major challenges the Middle East has faced in moving into the twenty-first century era. It introduces the key themes that have come to dominate the contemporary international relations of the Middle East, which includes oil, new and old conflicts, the variable impacts of globalization, and religio-politics. It also employs the term ‘intermestic’ to highlight the multiple linkages between domestic and international politics which are vindicated and reinforced by the events of the Arab Spring. The chapter reviews the 2020-Abraham Accords, the impact of Covid-19, and impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It discusses the arguments about the primacy of domestic governance issues that is confirmed by current problems in Lebanon and Tunisia.
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Fred H. Lawson
This chapter offers a detailed survey of international relations (IR) approaches, including the particular difficulties that IR in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region shares with other parts of the Global South. It highlights the creation of the modern states system in the Middle East that closely coincided with the development of international relations as an independent discipline. This discussion constitutes both an essential starting point and a useful set of tools for understanding the Middle East’s international relations and the relevant theoretical underpinnings. The chapter looks at vital and enduring points of entry into understanding the international politics of the Middle East via its twentieth-century history. It highlights the unending dialogue with the past that was underlined by the unanticipated course of events surrounding the Arab uprisings and their consequences.
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This chapter details the seminal events surrounding the Arab uprisings and their outcomes, approaching them from a bottom-up perspective of the peoples of the Middle East. It highlights the conception of popular uprisings against aged and mostly despotic governments that have long silenced popular dissent. It also argues that the Arab uprisings demonstrate the weakness of traditional international relations (IR) by showing how much the people matter. The chapter points out how the Arab world continues to be subject to external interference and persistent authoritarian rule, even if the Arab uprisings have not delivered on popular expectations. It discusses the part of the Arab world in the ongoing processes of global protest and change that are facilitated by new media and technology.
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Charles Smith
This chapter deals with the most central and contentious security issue in the international relations of the modern Middle East: the conflict between Arab states and Israel. It traces the characteristics of the Arab–Israel conflict and how these have changed over time. It also demonstrates how both realism and identity politics have informed the position of different parties to the conflict. The chapter explains how the 1967 war or the Arab–Israel conflict was as much about Arab identity and leadership as it was about the struggle with Israel, even at its high point. It shows how from 1948 to the present, the unresolved Palestinian question has remained at the heart of debates about regional relations, even as more Arab states have signed accords with Israel.
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Louise Fawcett and Peter Sluglett
This chapter highlights the legacy of the Cold War in the Middle East and shows how it continues to resonate, including Russia’s ‘return’ to the region via its presence in Syria. It examines traditional interpretations in the historiography of the Cold War which are linked to dominant realist paradigms in international relations and attribute great importance to external agency. It also covers the US policy which was viewed both by contemporaries and subsequent scholars as a reaction to the Soviet threat. The chapter reviews accounts released from post-Cold-War archives, which add more nuance and detail to the role played by domestic actors in shaping the conflict. It emphasizes the persuasive power of realism and the dominance of material interests and recognizes the role of local actors and forces in determining the trajectory the states of the Middle East.
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Louise Fawcett
This chapter offers an overview of the changing dynamics of regionalism and alliance-making in the Middle East, covering processes that are closely related to states’ foreign and domestic policy choices. It examines practices of regionalism alongside international relations approaches that consider the varied explanations of the roles of ideas, interests, and domestic and external agency. It also demonstrates the loose fit between traditional, international relations concerns and regional realities, citing the EU as an example that cannot be considered a useful model for a region like the Middle East. The chapter combines domestic, regional, and international factors to review the Middle East’s slow record in terms of successful institution-building and alliance volatility. It considers the theory and practice of regional cooperation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and how the Middle East experience relates to comparative studies of regionalism.
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Raymond Hinnebusch and Anoushiravan Ehteshami
This chapter provides an analysis of foreign policymaking by major regional states based on a complex realist approach. It explains how a complex realist approach acknowledges the weight of realist or power-based arguments and highlights other factors, such as the level of dependency on the US, processes of democratization, and the role of leadership in informing states’ foreign policy choices. It also examines decision-making by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, and Egypt in relation to the key events and crises of the last decade. The chapter lays out a framework of the factors that shape the foreign policies of Middle East states, including their external environments and policy processes. It covers the 2003 Iraq War; the 2006 Hezbollah War; and the post-2014 War with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (IS), which indicated the states’ foreign policies that respond to threats and opportunities and their relative power positions.
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Roland Dannreuther
This chapter analyses the important relationships that are currently evolving between Russia, China, and the Middle East, reflecting the new global balance of power. It highlights the role that domestic factors play in defining their interests in the Middle East, including the need to incorporate the interests of significant Muslim populations in both Russia and China. It also examines the longer historical record of Russia, China, and the Middle East’s engagement, the imperial legacies, and the role that the Soviet Union and Communist China played in supporting radical revolutionary forces during the twentieth century. The chapter looks at how both China and Russia have enjoyed a significant return to the Middle East since the 2000s, which was driven by a mix of economic and geopolitical factors. It identifies the challenges the relationship of Russia, China, and the Middle East presents for the United States and the West.
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Raymond Hinnebusch
This chapter focuses on Arabism and other regional ethnicities as sources of political identity. It emphasizes the importance of regional identities within the Middle East, which have been accentuated because of the poor fit between identity and states and regimes and this remains pertinent today. The chapter also argues that the persistence of conflict in the Middle East must be understood through the incongruence of identity and material structures. The chapter highlights pan-Arabism and the irredentist and separatist movements that have characterized the history and political development of the Middle East. It shows how the interaction of identity with state formation and development has contributed to numerous wars and to the evolution of regional developments following the Arab Spring.
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This chapter examines the landmark series of negotiations between Arabs and Israelis in the early 1990s, culminating in the Oslo accords (1993), which marked the first and so far, the only sustained effort at peaceful resolution of the Arab–Israeli conflict. These events, which dominated the regional panorama and captured the international imagination, assist one's understanding not only of the nature and direction of Middle East politics, but also their positioning within the emerging international order as outlined by then US President George H. W. Bush. At first, it seemed that the accords, in reconciling the two major parties to the conflict — the Israelis and the Palestinians — were a demonstration of an emerging and more liberal international system. Yet the fragility of this system, in the Middle East as elsewhere, was soon exposed.
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Anatol Lieven
This chapter considers future prospects for US foreign policy on the basis of long-established patterns and other factors such as the interests and ideology of elites, the structures of political life, the country’s real or perceived national interests, and the increasingly troubled domestic scene. It first examines the ideological roots of US foreign policy before discussing some of the major contemporary challenges for US foreign policy, including relations with China, US military power, and the US political order. It then describes the basic contours of US foreign policy over the next generation with respect to the Middle East, the Far East, Russia, Europe and the transatlantic relationship, climate change, and international trade. It also presents catastrophic scenarios for American foreign policy and argues that there will no fundamental change in US global strategy whichever of the two dominant political parties is in power.
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This chapter examines conflicts in Latin America, South-East Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East during the Cold War in which the United States and the Soviet Union were involved. Lyndon B. Johnson’s decision to escalate the war in Vietnam may have been encouraged in the spring of 1965 by events in the Caribbean, where armed intervention by US Marines put a quick end to a supposed communist menace in the Dominican Republic. Arguably, this action reflected a change of priorities from the Eisenhower and Kennedy presidencies, when there were hopes of the US stimulating Latin American economic development. The chapter first considers US intervention in the Dominican Republic before discussing the Malaysia–Indonesia ‘confrontation’ of 1963–1966, the Indo–Pakistan wars of 1965 and 1971, and the Six Day War in 1967 between Arabs and Israelis.
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Michael C. Hudson
This chapter assesses the evolution of US policy towards the Middle East. It begins with a historical sketch of US involvement in the area, discussing the traditional US interests. The chapter then considers US policy in the administrations of George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald J. Trump. President Obama's attempt to reset relations with the region produced mixed results: he reached an agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and oversaw the successful Bin Laden raid in 2011, but failed to offset continuing regional turmoil following the Arab uprisings and the rise of IS, or to make any progress on the Israel–Palestine question. While there are some observable continuities, President Trump has already upended US Middle East policy in several significant ways, as advisors attempt to restrain his apparent desire to undo his predecessor's legacy.
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This chapter examines the shift in global balance that began in the post-2007 economic crisis. For a considerable time before the 2008 crisis, the United States and most European states had been living on high levels of debt both national and individual, public and private. Manufacturing in the developed West, and its provision of secure jobs for many workers, was undermined by the new economic environment of globalization, as well as the growth of cheaper manufacturing in China and the other BRIC countries. A new epoch of financial capitalism, which had emerged since the 1980s, was in full swing by the start of the Noughties. The chapter first considers the post-2007 economic crisis, before discussing the continuing rise of China and Russian foreign policy under Vladimir Putin. It concludes with an assessment of international reactions to China’s rise, including those of East Asia, international organizations, and Taiwan.
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This chapter examines decolonization and the changes that took place within the European empires during the early years of the Cold War. Decolonization constituted a crucial element of the new international order after the Second World War and formed part of the broader shift in the global balance of power. The war marked the end of the European-dominated system of nation states and was followed by the decline of the major European powers, with international dominance lying for a quarter of a century with the United States, challenged only by the Soviet Union. The chapter considers the challenges to colonial rule that were evident in both Africa and Asia during the inter-war years. It also discusses the imperialism and the struggles against it that have formed part of a post-war landscape in the Middle East.
