This chapter shows the importance of understanding the decision-making process behind a country’s actions. This is done through the application of a key concept of Foreign Policy Analysis: the decision-making unit. The unit, which is composed by one or a group of top policymakers that have the authority and the power to make a foreign policy decision and commit the state’s resources to it, functions as an intervening variable between all the possible domestic and international forces – the independent variables – and the foreign policy of a country: the dependent variable. The concept of decision-making unit provides students of foreign policy with a powerful set of analytical tools to generate hypotheses and guide the empirical analysis. Empirically, this is shown by comparing the mainstream, power transition-based interpretation of China’s approach to the protection of its interests overseas with that produced if one looks at the same issue through the lens of the decision-making unit. To the contrary of what the mainstream transition-based interpretation, the analysis of dynamics within the decision-making units led by Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Xi Jinping suggests that the military will play only a limited role in protecting Chinese assets, companies and citizens overseas. Instead, the consular protection system and cooperation with other countries will remain the pillars of China’s current policy.
12
Chapter
17. China’s approach to the protection of its interests overseas
Andrea Ghiselli
Chapter
17. Russia, China, and the Middle East
Roland Dannreuther
This chapter addresses the important relationships that are currently evolving between Russia, China, and the Middle East. Russia and China have emerged as increasingly powerful actors in the Middle East and their presence and influence in the region has grown significantly. While both states have had longstanding historical links with the region, the twenty-first-century panorama is a quite distinctive one, with new economic and geopolitical factors driving a return to Middle East and North Africa (MENA). In addition, significant Muslim populations in both countries add another dynamic to contemporary Russian and Chinese relations with MENA. The chapter then identifies the challenges this presents for the United States and the West, and how the states and peoples of the Middle East are responding to the resurgence of Russian and Chinese power in the region.
Book
Edited by Louise Fawcett
International Relations of the Middle East provides a guide to the subject of international relations in this important region. It combines the analysis of the key themes, actors, and issues with the history of the region, and insights from international experts. The text provides a thematic overview of the subject, combining history with analysis, as well as topical material and perspectives. The text also offers a wide range of perspectives, encouraging readers to think critically to formulate their own arguments and opinions. Finally, it provides current, topical insights, including developments such as the Syrian conflict, the increasing importance of Russia and China in the region, and the impact of the Trump administration. One chapter looks at Russia, China, and the Middle East and examines the role of these increasingly important actors in the region. The text also includes coverage of the most recent developments, including those relating to the conflict in Syria, the refugee crisis, so-called Islamic State, and the impact of Trump.
Book
Edited by Louise Fawcett
International Relations of the Middle East provides a guide to the subject of international relations in this important region. It combines the analysis of the key themes, actors, and issues with the history of the region, and insights from a leading team of international experts. The text provides a thematic overview of the subject, combining history with analysis, as well as topical material and perspectives. The text also offers a wide range of perspectives, encouraging students to think critically to formulate their own arguments and opinions. Finally, it provides current, topical insights, including developments such as the Syrian conflict, the increasing importance of Russia and China in the region, and the impact of the Trump administration. One chapter looks at Russia, China, and the Middle East and examines the role of these increasingly important actors in the region. The text also includes coverage of the most recent developments, including those relating to the conflict in Syria, the refugee crisis, so-called Islamic State, and the impact of the Trump administration.
Chapter
15. Russia, China, and the Middle East
Roland Dannreuther
This chapter analyses the important relationships that are currently evolving between Russia, China, and the Middle East, reflecting the new global balance of power. It highlights the role that domestic factors play in defining their interests in the Middle East, including the need to incorporate the interests of significant Muslim populations in both Russia and China. It also examines the longer historical record of Russia, China, and the Middle East’s engagement, the imperial legacies, and the role that the Soviet Union and Communist China played in supporting radical revolutionary forces during the twentieth century. The chapter looks at how both China and Russia have enjoyed a significant return to the Middle East since the 2000s, which was driven by a mix of economic and geopolitical factors. It identifies the challenges the relationship of Russia, China, and the Middle East presents for the United States and the West.
Chapter
16. Socialist Models of Development and the Rise of China
Guoer Liu and Andrew Kilmister
This chapter situates examples of socialist development within wider historical contexts, and discusses their evolution, consequences, and potentials. The state socialist model of development emerged out of a particular historical experience, that of the USSR following the Bolshevik revolution. However, the problems faced by the Bolsheviks were of a general nature, and the industrialization achieved in the USSR thus appeared to offer lessons for other countries attempting to develop and industrialize. But the model proved to be of more limited applicability than had been hoped when applied elsewhere. The rise of China may present an alternative path to many, but the extent to which it is unique and whether it could be characterized as a 'socialist development model' remain controversial. In addition, the reforms in China have been accompanied by many challenges. As the world economy has become more interdependent, the concept of a nationally based socialist road to development has been called into question.
Chapter
12. An Era of Negotiations, 1972–3
This chapter examines the negotiations pursued by the United States and the Soviet Union in the early 1970s. The most dramatic change in international diplomacy in the early 1970s was the rapprochement between Beijing and Washington. After two decades of enmity, it was announced on 15 July 1971 that Richard Nixon was to visit China. The ‘Opening to China’ was in accord with the Nixon–Kissinger hope of maintaining a favourable position vis-à-vis the Soviets despite America’s problems in Vietnam. The chapter first considers the so-called ‘triangular diplomacy’ involving the US, USSR, and China as well as the East Asian balance, before discussing the Moscow Summit and Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT I). It concludes with an assessment of the Nixon administration’s Vietnam settlement in 1972–3 via the Paris peace accords.
Chapter
3. Structural Realism
John J. Mearsheimer
This chapter examines why states pursue power from the perspective of structural realism. It considers a body of realist theories that argue that states have deep concern for the balance of power and compete among themselves either to gain power at the expense of others, or at least to make sure they do not lose power. This competition for power makes for a dangerous world where states sometimes fight each other. There are, however, important differences among structural realists. The chapter first explains why states want power and how much power they want before discussing the causes of war. These theoretical issues are illuminated with a case study that assesses whether China can rise peacefully according to offensive realism vs. defensive realism. Along the way, concepts such as the security dilemma, offence–defence balance, central war, buck-passing, unipolarity, bipolarity, and multipolarity, and deterrence are analysed.
Chapter
9. The Eastern and Western Blocs in the 1960s
This chapter provides an overview of the Eastern and Western blocs in the 1960s. It first considers US–Soviet relations from the Cuban Missile Crisis to détente spanning the period 1963–71, focusing on the talks between Nikita Khrushchev and John F. Kennedy regarding the Test Ban Treaty, before discussing the superpowers’ relations with China. It then explores unity and division in Eastern Europe and in the Western bloc, taking into account the European Economic Community (EEC), NATO, and the Western economies in the 1960s. It also analyses the rise of European détente, covering topics such as progress on pan-European contacts and the emergence of Ostpolitik.
Chapter
6. American foreign policy during the Cold War
Richard Saull
This chapter examines US foreign policy during the Cold War, beginning with an overview of the main historical developments in US policy. It first considers the origins of the Cold War and containment, focusing on the breakdown of the wartime alliance between the United States and the USSR, the emergence of US–Soviet diplomatic hostility and geopolitical confrontation, and how the Cold War spread beyond Europe. It then explains how the communist revolution in China in 1949 and the outbreak of the Korean War in June 1950 propelled the US towards a much bolder and more ambitious containment policy. It also looks at US military interventions in the third world, the US role in the ending of the Cold War, and the geopolitical, ideational, and/or socio-economic factors that influenced American foreign policy during the Cold War. The chapter concludes with an assessment of the dual concerns of US foreign policy.
Chapter
25. US decline or primacy? A debate
Christopher Layne, William Wohlforth, and Stephen G. Brooks
This chapter presents two opposing views on the question of whether US power is in decline, and if so, what would be the best grand strategy that the United States need to pursue. According to Christopher Layne, the United States is now in inexorable decline and that this process of decline has been hastened by the pursuit of global primacy in the post-Cold War era. He also contends that primacy engenders balancing by other great powers as well as eroding America’s ‘soft power’ global consensual leadership. On the other hand, William Wohlforth and Steven Brooks insist that the United States remains the sole superpower in the world and that it faces comparatively weak systemic constraints on the global exercise of its power. The chapter considers issues of unipolarity and multipolarity, along with the implications of China’s rise as a great power status for US foreign policy and hegemony.
Chapter
15. US foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific
Feng Zhang
This chapter examines US foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific region. It first considers America’s rise as an major power and the introduction of the Open Door policy that became a major component of US policy during the period 1899–1941. It then shows how, with the conclusion of World War II, the United States achieved maritime hegemony in the Asia-Pacific and the historic policy of Open Door was rendered irrelevant by American preponderance. It also discusses the Korean War of 1950 and how it prompted the United States aggressively to apply the containment doctrine in Asia by establishing the so-called ‘hub-and-spokes’ bilateral alliance system; the outbreak of the Vietnam War; the Richard Nixon–Henry Kissinger opening to China in the early 1970s; and American foreign policy under Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump.
Chapter
24. The future of US foreign policy
Anatol Lieven
This chapter considers future prospects for US foreign policy on the basis of long-established patterns and other factors such as the interests and ideology of elites, the structures of political life, the country’s real or perceived national interests, and the increasingly troubled domestic scene. It first examines the ideological roots of US foreign policy before discussing some of the major contemporary challenges for US foreign policy, including relations with China, US military power, and the US political order. It then describes the basic contours of US foreign policy over the next generation with respect to the Middle East, the Far East, Russia, Europe and the transatlantic relationship, climate change, and international trade. It also presents catastrophic scenarios for American foreign policy and argues that there will no fundamental change in US global strategy whichever of the two dominant political parties is in power.
Chapter
7. The Globalization of Production
Eric Thun
This chapter addresses the globalization of production. Although companies have been investing abroad for centuries, the most recent era of globalization has created an unprecedented range of possibilities for global firms to reorganize and relocate their activities. The chapter analyses how advances in transportation and technology allow a firm to divide up a global value chain — the sequence of activities that lead to the production of a particular good or service — and how these decisions create new opportunities and challenges for both companies and the societies within which they operate. It first reviews the rise of global production and the forces that have led to dramatic increases in foreign direct investment (FDI) and outsourcing. The central questions for any firm involved in global production involves how to govern the value chain and where to locate different activities. The chapter then provides a framework for understanding these issues and the implications of the various choices. It also applies these concepts to the case of East Asia, particularly China.
Chapter
15. Conclusion: The Future of Democracy
This concluding chapter outlines a number of factors that will potentially shape the future trajectory of democracy. It is impossible to forecast with any certainty democracy's future trajectory. The state of global democracy will be determined by a number of complex, dynamic, and inter-related factors. Based on current trends and future projections about the state of the global economy, levels of instability and conflict, technological change, and China's development, it appears that the risks of a widespread authoritarian resurgence have grown. Given these prospects, it is important to consider the implications of a rise in the number of autocracies worldwide. How would a widespread authoritarian resurgence affect today's global order? Policymakers, analysts, and academics widely agree that the norms, values, laws, and institutions that have undergirded the international system and governed relationships between nations are being stretched and strained. Widespread democratic decline would also accelerate changes in today's global order.
Chapter
4. The Cold War Intensifies: Containment Superseded, 1948–53
This chapter examines the intensification of the Cold War and the decision of the US to abandon ‘containment’ in favour of ‘liberation’ during the period 1948–53. By 1948, the dominant relationship between the Soviet Union, the US, and Britain had moved from one of cooperation to confrontation, and then to hostility and conflict. In this situation, the Cold War required a clearly defined strategy for fighting it. Western interpretations of this strategy have largely been based on the idea of containment and especially about the form of containment that should be adopted. The chapter discusses the origins of Cold War fighting; armaments and militarization; the Cold War and European integration; the NSC 68 memorandum, rearmament, and the Cold War offensive controversy; and the growing importance of communist China and the conflict in Korea.
Chapter
25. Economic Problems in the West and the Economic Rise of China in the East
This chapter examines the shift in global balance that began in the post-2007 economic crisis. For a considerable time before the 2008 crisis, the United States and most European states had been living on high levels of debt both national and individual, public and private. Manufacturing in the developed West, and its provision of secure jobs for many workers, was undermined by the new economic environment of globalization, as well as the growth of cheaper manufacturing in China and the other BRIC countries. A new epoch of financial capitalism, which had emerged since the 1980s, was in full swing by the start of the Noughties. The chapter first considers the post-2007 economic crisis, before discussing the continuing rise of China and Russian foreign policy under Vladimir Putin. It concludes with an assessment of international reactions to China’s rise, including those of East Asia, international organizations, and Taiwan.
Chapter
28. Threats to the Existing Global Order: Challenges from the East
This chapter considers challenges from Russia, North Korea, and China. The first section describes Vladimir Putin’s acquisition and retention of power, and his antagonistic approach towards former members of the Soviet Union. Russia’s rift with the West was exacerbated by its annexation of Crimea and military intervention in Syria. The second section discusses tensions arising from North Korea’s nuclear policy, and attempts by Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un to achieve a lasting peace agreement. The third section examines the economic growth of China, the development of its international role since joining the WTO, its increasing military strength, and its foreign policy. The chapter concludes with an assessment of the opportunities and the geopolitical risks for Asia and China while the influence of the United States, European Union, and Russia wanes.
Chapter
12. China and the Global Political Economy
Scott James
The global political economy is undergoing a moment of profound change and upheaval, precipitated by the recentering of the global economy back toward Asia, where it had traditionally been until the shock of colonialism and European industrialization. China, in particular through decades of sustained, rapid economic growth and domination of global manufacturing capacity, has greatly increased its influence over international affairs. This work explores some of the challenges generated by China and the other ‘rising powers’, including increased military and diplomatic confrontation, the erosion of core norms that underpin key institutions of economic governance and the creation of new institutions that may undermine the existing framework of global economic governance. The work reflects on the future of global political economy and questions the basis of the existing set of approaches, norms and institutions of global governance, whom they were created to benefit, and the extent of their claims to legitimacy.
Chapter
17. China and the Tian’anmen Crisis of June 1989
Rosemary Foot
This chapter examines the foreign policy consequences of the Tiananmen Square massacre of June 1989, and more specifically the Chinese government’s use of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to crack down on demonstrators. It first considers the external consequences of China’s open door policy before discussing the human rights issue in China before Tian’anmen. It then explores the events leading up to the Tian’anmen crackdown, along with its immediate foreign policy consequences. In particular, it analyses the sanctions against China and the country’s foreign policy response to those sanctions. It also describes the deepening of China’s involvement with human rights and its increased significance as a player in international politics.
12
