Abstract

Do ideas affect foreign policy, and if so, how? This chapter examines the claim that neoconservative ideas about foreign policy were decisive in persuading the George W. Bush administration to launch a preventive war against Iraq in March 2003. It identifies the key tenets of neoconservative foreign policy thought and shows that some of its major advocates won key positions in the Bush administration. However, the argument of the chapter is that, by itself, neoconservatism provides only a partial explanation of Operation Iraqi Freedom. A more satisfactory explanation would need to incorporate the following: the 9/11 attacks, the strategic placement of neoconservative ideas by its advocates in calmer times, the assumption that the United States would have no trouble waging a successful war, and the one percent doctrine. It is the combination of these events, ideas, and probability estimates that tipped the balance in favour of war.